Skeets, You can't teach a slow-witted dog any tricks. <G> First, he is absolutely wrong about success vs. failure, as Jung points out. Second, He is measuring to the top of an all-time high massive bull market and a 20 year low in interest rates. All stats measured to a bubble top are skewered to the positive. Academics stumble over this sort of thing all the time. They, also, never learn. Third, nobody cares whether big companies do well or survive. The question is, do they do well enough and grow enough and pay out enough dividends discounted by the risk free rate in the future to deserve the ridiculous valuations they have today. And the answer to that is no chance whatsoever.
BTW, I also notice that Kory did not even give lipservice to adjusting stock returns for inflation. Admittedly, this is a bubble top and inflation, as measured by the scamsters, has been low. But it has not been non-existent. A 10% return in nominal terms over a long period of time is great and sounds great. But when inflation compounds at even a 2% level, it really cuts into those #s. And if you sold before the new cap gains laws, and even after, the govt. has to have their share. And they will get it either from you or your heirs, of whom the govt. hopes to be the largest. I am not sure on this one, but I think they double-dip when you die. They tax the capital gains when your heirs sell and then wack them with estate tax on the leftover amount. Such a deal. <G> So, with that kind of monkey on your back, you'd better protect yourself against declines.
MB |
