Gregg,
while I am the official chicken little, QC's fundamentals have not been questioned. Of the few years that I have owned QC, the company is as strong as it has ever been. Unfortunately, the timing is poor.
Almost a year ago, some of you may remember a post that I did on a country by country basis, trying to make heads and tails out of the Asia turmoil. That exercise was largely responsible for my turning bearish and eventually chicken.
There is really no need to repeat the exercise because, unlike back then, the Asian news are more widely covered by all news media today. However, the list of troubled countries is no longer limited to Asia. Russia, SA, Canada, Mexico are all added to the list.
If you believe, in the long run, that the market is efficient, then sooner or later, it will have to factor in a global economy that is rapidly changing for the worse. I don't really worry about a global depression or Russia's nuclear weapons, because if those scenario play out, then there is no safe haven anyway. The fact remains that the growth rate we enjoyed in the last few years will not be feasible under the current climate.
The over valued big caps already demonstrated on Monday that they are vulnerable to a sell off of major proportions. It does not take much to trigger another round when the FUD factor is already in the forefront of investors minds.
Thailand, Malaysia and Korea are in danger of taking another major step down. HK Monetary Authority is playing no limit poker with Soros. Japan has to show their hand sooner or later. Zedillo just gave a less than encouraging talk in Mexico yesterday. Canada has to be suffering because they are no longer supported by HK.
Domestically, the earnings warnings season is upon us.
Do I live up to my official chicken little title?
Ramsey |
