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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (26217)	9/2/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) of 94695

~$100B in bad loans is irrelevant? Sorry, it is now. Most of that has been written off a long time ago. Says who? Is this what Kohl's telling to German voters? No, the banks themselves (60 - 90 % of all loans to Russia not guaranteed by the government; the government never expected a repayment of their guarantees). Everything was just fine when Russia signed an agreement with the IMF in July. Again, no. Everyone knew that Russia was close to defaulting. These were high-level arrangements to shift the debt around to spread the pain over a longer period of time. We have seen that before with the third-world debt. Most of that money given by the IMF immediately leaves Russia again and goes back to Western creditors. Take a look at what happened to money-center banks and other financials since Russia defaulted on its debt. I don't know what you mean. Do you mean the stock price of Western banks? Stock prices have been punished and deserved it, but otherwise I don't see what you mean. Quite honestly, anyone who ever believed to see any of that money back has been seriously out of touch with reality. I may sound harsh, but I do not have the slightest glimmer of sympathy for anyone who invested in Russia and lost money. Having said that, I nevertheless believe that the West should not hesitate to transfer more money if that helps to prevent a political nightmare scenario (e.g. Jirinowski [sp?] taking over). Throwing money indiscriminately at Russia, which only enriches the oligarchs but does not help the common citizen, is not the solution. Regards, Phil

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