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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!!

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To: DanZ who wrote (4280)9/2/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (2) of 6565
 
Hi Dan

sorry, here comes the cold water
and I have a vested interest as I bought at 9 1/8 about 2:30 today (great timing)

they do have appox $320in cash and mkt sec, and even though I expect a small loss this qtr they should be cash positive due to depreciation (non cash expense)

doing my usual end of the world analysis:

everyone always talks about the cash but forgets that debt must be paid

so----

taking static value of their assets I get appox value, worst case, of $590mm
total debt + $ 370mm

so book value is appox $4.80 a share

the is NO cash available for common shareholders

that is worst case
best case is more like book of $6-7

but, I don't see this as likely
if they are smart they will announce an increased buyback (as long as their debt covenants allow that)

we might well be surprised
sometimes news like this is carthatic and tells the market where things are, removes some doubt
so the stock has a 40% of going up IMO and 60% of dropping to 7 ish

I'd be happy to bail anywhere North of 8 1/2

luck to all
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