Goodboy: Down on satellite stocks? I'm surprised...
I'll be the first to admit that there are accelerated risks in the coming year for the world's satellite fleet. I'm sure that there will be at least one loss, and people may come to understand how much the world depends on satellite transmissions. Of course, outside of the obvious loss of the satellite affecting its owners, the rest of the world will take things in stride. Since the loss of Galaxy IV, many people now realize that the world's fleet of satellites include spares in orbit to respond to just such emergencies.
Companies have long planned for the possible loss of space assets. The nice thing about the most generation of satellites is that these birds offer an extraordinary performance boost over satellites in use 10 years ago at about half of the cost - so companies can add more redundancy than ever into their planning both with on-board systems and in-orbit spares.
We've had discussions before on the DISH thread, and while I may not agree with your conclusions, I've always respected you for having well thought out opinions. But it seems to me that the very advantage of high power DBS that you see as pivotal to Primestar's success is what makes satellite itself such a bargain compared to ground based networks. DBS providers are proving their advantage against cable providers nationwide, and the key is building a big pipe at a negligible cost per passing. Instead of $800 per passing to build a network, DBS companies enjoy costs per passing of $10 or less. With such an advantage, and with such a large backlog of pending launches, what's not to like for satellite?
Of course, should DIRECTV actually lose a bird, they will take a hit in the short term. But I think it's clear that, should they stumble, the heir apparent is actually DISH...
Regards,
NOEL |
