Amati vs. Aware Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amati vs. Aware

AWRE 1.955

+5.7%

Jan 2 9:30 AM EST

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To: Steven Sage who wrote (186)	12/18/1996 12:27:00 PM
From: Cliff Wood	of 221

Have been lurking on your chat re. likely potential killer mkt. for xadsl. Would like to chime in and offer a thought teaser. I did a lot of work with adoption diffusion theory in my mktg. job in the Ag. Div. of Dow Chem. The concept has applicability accross technologies. Innovators comprise ~ 3% of the pop., early adopters ~ 12%, early majority ~ 35%, late majority ~ 35%, laggards ~ 10% and non adopters ~ 5%. The distribution percentages are not precise but you get the idea. It took hybrid seed corn, a concept with compelling benefits, 17 yrs to get to the late majority in the 40's and 50's. The new transgenic seeds such as Bt cotton will take much less today because of improved mktg and communications. However, individuals in a group still depend upon acceptance of individuals in the group ahead of it to provide credability to the concept. The innovator is a self confident person who does not require the favorable opinion of others to support his self esteem. He is therfore willing to take risks with new ideas and has the ability to evaluate them in the abstract. Pride does not interfere with him changing his mind. Most importantly, he is recognized by others as having these unique capabilties and he is watched closely by people in the early adopter group as a source of reliable new information. An innovator persists over time i.e. Microsoft unless he commits a blunder i.e. Apple Computer. I could go on but the above sets the stage for the following: A critical question is: who are the innovators within the telcos or ISP's that will provide compelling credibility to one or the other of the the xadsl technologies such as CAP or DMT? Or is it likely to emmanate from another source such as chip mfgr such as Motorola or an integrator such as Alcatel or an equip. supplier such as Lucent or Nortel. Just rambling here but want to cast the net widely. If we can't answer this question, who can? If we can find out who to watch (may be more than one) we can get a leg up and not get hung out to dry by betting on the wrong horse. Sorry for the long post, hope in provides grist for the mill. Regards: Cliff

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