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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (681)9/2/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Ken Brown  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Of course this is so unlikely that I have no intention of sharpening those pencils for sale

I thought that was the other Marc. I'm confused.

If I were you, I'd sharpen a few, just in case. On the one hand, the sentiment numbers can help fuel a rally, should one materialize one of these days. Both from short covering, and from bears turning over into the bull camp. OTOH, though, I think you're right about bearish sentiment over 50% possibly being bad. It's the old inverse of "buy the dips", and it very well may keep rallies in check (witness today's action).

My concern isn't sentiment, but valuation. The PEs are looking awfully high all of a sudden, with the "R" word being tossed about like it has this week. A "buying opportunity" with an S&P 500's '99 pe of 21? Hmmm. And if "R" happens, that 21 is going to balloon, fast.

Ken

PS - I'm still 99% long, though you probably can't tell from what I wrote.
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