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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (26299)	9/3/1998 12:31:00 AM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (1) of 94695

David.....seems as though you have a moderately bearish count going on here. one which is predicated on the correction last Aug-Oct. as being Cycle wave IV and the move up to July 20th as Cycle 5......could be............ on the other hand: consider the following.......I believe you have Cycle I running from 1982 to 1994....and the correction of 1994 as Cycle II.........I have a problem with this count....by Elliott Theory... Cycle corrections are suppose to correct the previous Cycle just completed and the Cycle Correction is suppose to be BIGGER than any of the Primary corrections in the Cycle of lesser degree...in this case the correction of 1994 was correcting everything from 1982-1994....during this period Primary 2 correction was the 1987 crash, and Primary 4 correction was the 1990 correction of 16-22%(depending where you start it)..........the correction of 1994 was about 11%,not even close to P2 and P4...............and although they don't have to be "sharp" most 2nd waves are sharp, this was flat.....and, though not a law, it is a general "rule of thumb"that Cycle corrections should reach the level of the previous Primary 4 correction or exceed it (as the crash of 87 did), the 94 correction did not come close to reaching the level of P4, 1990(which began between 2800-3000) considering all of the above I cannot honor that count and the count forward would be skewed. it is possible that Cycle I ran from 1982 to 1987 Cycle II was the crash of 87 Cycle III ran from the crash to April 1998 with last fall being Primary 4 of Cycle III Cycle IV then running "A" April-May...."B" May-July 20......"C" 5 waves down and these 5 waves are getting us into Wave 4 of one lesser degree(P4 of Cycle III, last fall's correction) or if Cycle III ended July 20th we would just be in the "A" down of the big Cycle IV correction with "B" up to come (started Tuesday?) and then "C" down in a little while to test and/or exceed Mondays lows, which would be an alternation of Cycle II (87 crash) any one reading wave discussion should never forget that there is always more than 1 valid count.......I look for turning points with good probability and place a few bets...if the count goes my way I pour it on....if it goes to an alternate count against me I get stopped out or eat it...... if it drops 500 points tomorrow feel free to tell me to call my proctologist to help me find my head my best regards to you David and good luck to all carl

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