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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.12

-0.2%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (15895)	9/3/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) of 164684

The DOW finished nervously today but most of that was due to selling in the transportation sector and had more to do with the airlines strike according to news reports. There is still a lot of nervousness left and a good chance that the market will go back down within the next 2-4 weeks to re-test the previous low we set on Tuesdays open. I've looked back over the past few years at what happens when there has been a quick and strong sell-off. Even when these large sell-offs were latter followed by additional lows, the sell-offs had short-term rallies that lasted at least a week. This sell-off was steeper and quicker than all but a few others, so I expect the technical bounce to be significant. My advice is to not expect the market to come roaring back without a re-test at some point. This makes day trading more attractive for at least a good portion of investors holdings if they are so inclined or trimming back to 50% cash or more. I think that the market is not in a major bear market and that it will head up substantially by the end of the year. There are still many troubling factors, such as world-wide commodity price collapse that could lead to political instability and damaged profits for some sectors, but there are also major positive trends that are continuing and some cyclical trends, like growth in internet/networking and some resurgence in semiconductors, computers, and electronics industries that are very favorable. Consumer spending should also be a positive factor. So far, the withdrawal of money from equity mutual funds does not appear to be accelerating and may be turning back to positive (the last anecdotal stuff I heard on the news but not confirmed). Consumer confidence does not appear to be shaken much. This is a BIG factor in the ability of the economy to move forward and the health of the debt troubled overseas companies. The TA on the inet sector looks short-term bullish - at least ready for a rebound. I would not bet on the health of the sector mid-longer term at this point as I think it is very vulnerable to wild swings in investor confidence (that's pretty obvious). My guess is that AMZN will move up to the 100-105 range if the market doesn't turn down significantly.

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