That couldnt be any further from the POINT. You are demonstrating a very naive understanding of the role of gold not only in the current financial environment but in its historical context as well. You seem to bring a trend following mentality to the table, a mentality which can only make money with existing and already established trends. However, I think we are currently in a period when existing trends are ending and new trends will emerge. It takes a clever eye to identify those trend changing opportunities and it also takes patience to allow them to play out. But, you know that because you yourself have stated that it is a sell the rally market in stocks , having converted already from the buy the dips. I fully agree. I THINK, and it is very difficult to know , that gold may be in a transition as such. Or, at least the beginning of one. And, its new emerging trend change may be slower in revealing itself than would , say , the stock market. Remember, gold is a much more difficult and different market. Opportunities to make real money in gold(short or long)really occur only once in a while. This WHILE could be measured in increments of years. It is not a sceen market with a lot of individual participation anymore.But, if you are a contrary type thinker, you have to be attracted to the POTENTIAL for a serious and menaingful trend change as many other BIG PICTURE changes are going on around the world currenty. Who knows for sure, but it is worth monitoring. The standard reasons against an investment in gold are all crap. That is not what is driving it down, and you are smart enough to know that. Markets do what they do. The trick is to identify WHEN a potential trend change is coming. And I think we may be near or very near that time. But, it could go down much more quickly first. Its just worth monitoring. And , pontification as to why is irrelevant. After all, it is just a vehicle for making money, not for proving a point.
As for Dell versus gold, I think it is a really interesting argument because it kind of capsulizes a lot of what is going on around the world with regard to financial markets. If, as you posted elsewhere, 80% of a stocks movement is dictated by the overall direction of the general market, then Dellis, IMO, a lost cause because I believe the overall direction of the general market is going to be headed in a southerly direction. Notwithstaning, Dell is an extraoridinary company. We should all be as blessed as Michael Dell. But, this gold versus Dell theme is a good one and we should really nourish discussion of the concept, because there is a lot to it. |
