Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: SkyDart who wrote (26322)	9/3/1998 9:03:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Jeffrey, Nice article. On the possibility of deflation: Last night on Nightly Business Report they hosted a commodities technician. I didn't catch the whole bit, with the kids screaming and all, but here's what I gathered- He posted a chart with the commodities index overlaying the 3 month T-Bill rate. The chart, going back 20 or 30 years showed that the commodities index led the T-bill rate by 4-6 months. The last several months have shown a huge drop in the commodities index, and a flat T-bill rate (4.8% I believe). He further stated that every instance in the past where the commodities index fell below 200 resulted in DEFLATION. Every damn time. In conclusion 1) Deflation is now a certainty. 2) Interest rates are going to fall considerably (maybe as low as 2.5%), and will start falling soon. According to Zwieg, this is not a good signal for the stock market either. One would have to be either blind or just brainwashed to go long the stock market now. Happy selling, TW

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