Andrew, most of Mattson's sales come from photoresist strip, and in this area they do not compete with any heavyweights. Just Gasonics and Fusion, which are of a comparable size. This is a seriously competitive sector, but one where Mattson is not operating under any competitive disadvantages.
In their other product lines, they do compete with the heavies. CVD against Applied and Novellus. RTP against Applied. EPI against Applied.
I view these other products as 'icing on the cake' if they sell. To date they haven't sold a lot. If you want to take the most conservative approach in valuing the stock, you can forget about these other products.
Mattson, Gasonics, and a few other small semi equips that do not have overwhelming dominance in their market share are the same companies that are the most undervalued compared to their own historical multiple ranges. You can see this in a table that Fortowit posted in the blood thread a week ago. Mr. Market is scared, and it is more scared than usual of semi equip. companies that don't have a lock on their market.
Worst case, at least one strip supplier will survive the market downturn. Mattson and Gasonics both have lots of cash compared to revenues, and I suspect they will both survive. I don't know much about Fusion, except that they are the smallest of the three in terms of market share. |
