To all re shoulda coulda woulda, etc.
First, it is a macro vs. micro approach. On this thread we focus on micro. We were overcome by macro events unrelated to wcii's performance or fundamentals. However, our TA friends surely told us several times and "we" ignored them. Certainly I did. Remember the SSB tech guy who said it was breaking down?? How about the site i have with Ta that literally turned red?? I didn't act. Why not??
a. I got different advice from others an had insufficient confidence in certain of my own instincts. Second GREED. We were all overcome by greed. I too kept saying, "what if it pops on that ever present deal??" Then, i said, it must be over now. I didn't want to give up the gains i had amassed on paper. As a result, i lost all those gains and may still lose all my capital. greed.
We all did know the stock was overpriced at 48. Only issue was would the deal happen. If not, boom. And, history showed us we can go from 32 to 9!!!! in 2 blinks of an eye in a bull market.
And, we surely know that we are at greater risk---because of market irrationality. Like, how about a flight to KO in times of asian crisis?? insane, but that's ther market. I know my greed clouded my thinking. "Don't get out at 40, 36, or even 32, it's coming back now".
I believe we are still at significant market risk. If the overall markets stabilize, we should do better than most. If you don't believe that, get out and buy????WCOM??? Meanwhile, more scary world events will continue to at least threaten the dow. To me, the russell 2000 and many of my holdings were essentially crushed. I have plenty of stuff down 80%--see, eg, artt. So, can it really go to zero??? who knows. But, there will be a turn. The small caps have seen their bears. How long before we overcome them?? I read that article just posted and can tell you i would be ecstatic if in 11 months we were back to June 10. Also, unfortunately, i believe investors as a whole are now very chastened by risk. We may be alone for quite awhile until the $$$ numbers look good.
On one level, we are much too involved with this stock. Most investors have no idea what the significance of pmp is, or line orders, or "on-net" customers or revenue per line or hubs installed, etc. They care about $$$$. What's the P/E?? What. the company loses $50 million a quarter, has never had a profit, we're maybe in a bear market, it just lost 60%, it's beta is almost infinite, and you want me to put my money in it???? So, we need credibility and visibility. Instant credibility comes with a deal with a major international player. Frankly, I don't give a shit if we give awy 25% of the company cheap. We just "gave" away 61% of the company for free for our prior failure to reduce risk. |
