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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 117.44

-1.7%

Nov 20 3:59 PM EST

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To: Lucretius who wrote (63448)	9/3/1998 9:59:00 AM
From: Rif Kamil, M.D	Read Replies (3) of 176387

Hi Folks. I am new to this thread as a member but have followed the discussions here with interest and admiration for a year. It is difficult to define "fair value" in this market. I think that market psychology and momentum are the principal dictators of the day-to-day momentum we see in any stock. DELL is an amazingly run company and has consistently outperformed every other tech company over the last year (with the exception of hyped internet stocks).Within that context I feel that it will do better than most companies in the coming economic downturn. As other PC makers continue to revise earning expectations downwards DELL will be a stock with an increasingly high premium. Its performance over the last year (specifically in Japan and SE Asia has been against the face of recession in that region. As such, it is likely to continue to do well despite further crises there. Having given my opinion, I do feel that one company cannot stand against the massive market forces moving across the globe. In the US (I am a Canadian), one cannot continue to stress local fundamentals. The horsemen of the apocalypse are getting closer and closer. First it was SE Asia, then Japan, then Russia. Soon it will be Europe, Latin America. The US's biggest trading partners (Mexico and Canada) are making desperation moves to shore up their currencies. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates despite a wobbling economy.The US will have a recession. Dell will sink. If the DOW sinks below 7000 this week (as some here have suggested), then there is no telling where it will bottom. Within that environment, there is reason to suspect that every stock will fall, including DELL. My completely non-tech prediction is a bottom of 80-ish for Dell by October this year.

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