Re-evaluation of investment strategies can profitable and cathartic.
In these volatile times, it's easier to look back and second guess because of such distinct moves - but everyone needs to determine where in the range of investing (buy and hold) to trading (buy and sell) they feel their stocks and stomachs can maximize their profits and comfort. Back-fitting can be 100% accurate, but is not predictive of future success.
The best book on trading I have read is Schwager's first - "Market Wizards". One important takehome message from experts across the range of financial instruments is 'have a sell discipline and stick to it.' This is trading advice, but how many of us are truly buy and hold and hold and hold Sir Johns? And 30% retreats are difficult to justify for most anyone. Remember when you marry a stock, you are marrying the sector and market as well.
In any case, as Rick D has offered (and I believe) we WERE close to some deals. IMO, we'll continue to be close to deals. Who in these markets really foresaw the market shock and who knows what the coming months will bring? WCII in single digits? With further Asian meltdown looming, a distinct possibility. WCII back into the 30s? IMO, just as distinct.
Anyone else catch Gabelli on Squawk Box this AM? He's buying telcos, thinks they are oversold and that M&A activity will resume soon. And did anyone catch the Q&A with Sanmina's CEO? Asked about slowdown of sales (circuit boards) to telecom, he emphasized sales to that sector is strong. And Robbie's Berry (just on) also highlights the strong current growth potential in telecom/datacom and their emergent convergence.
Don't know if we get our $100 in 12 months, but wouldn't surprise me.
1999 will be the year of BW. Remember - BW is arguably the dominant technology into the millenium, and the local loop is *the* BW bottleneck. And everyone in communications knows this - so IMO, it's just a matter of time for the street to get hit over the head with this glaring fact. Even though we might be able to buy WCII cheaper (and/or trade it down from here), it's not clear to me this is a given, and IMO, the upside is STILL more significant. Going into NBMO's conference should be a positive, and also look for continued announcements going into earnings.
fwiw, and of course all IMO. |
