TW; AND all I hope not to post more on MO MO stocks, this should
be it.
I use to be a bottom fisher, and had some luck, BUT have found
nothing that in the overall sense beats momentum , not FA , not
stock picking ( at least not in any sense that any analyst would
use ) Just flat out hitching a ride on the MEGA CAPS, is the best
overall strategy one can find
Here some notes to Monty
Monty; with out the runners such as msft , csco, intc and dell in the mix it still did good, T19 less tech( not as good but good ) 80% returns instead of the 95% , in the 4-16-97 to 7-20-98, and again we could have got out in OCT, but I doubt we would have seen a buy signal in time to have improved our return. I don't know of any funds that beat it. Mo Mo is the way to go.
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This has to do with buying the TOP cap stocks of the S&P.
For no other reason that they must be bought by index funds
when the market goes up, and bought in more quantity than the lesser
cap stocks. Ironically they do not sell off as fast, and
with few exceptions bounce back faster.
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Monty looking at the t19, say we went in when the buy signal showed at 4-16-97 after the 4-11-97 low, had we stayed and came out on the sell signal 7-20-98 , we would have captured a 95% return, and that not having come out in OCT, we could have come out easy OCT 20 was clear sell signal, but a clear buy signal was not shown till mid Nov and they had already made up the loss.
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Monty ; Sh*t had we come in the regular Mo Mos less the tech , we not only would still be ahead over 60% even after this sell off,!
and if the market would fall another 50% we would still not be in the hole , but still ahead !
That's a fact, people who bought these back in 4-20-97 , can't be feeling any pain right now, IF they had just bought the BIG caps in the S&P 500..what a run..the index would have to drop to 4000 to take these things down.
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Why is it that way, ( LIQUID ) they would rather decimate the small caps than kill the liquid.., so when and if these start up it's the place to be, some small caps may also make some fast gains but do them in a sml cap fund, and if they out run these and then you get a
Mc Sum sell signal get out of everything.
BUT When this down turn is over I think we will see the FASTEST climb in the HISTORY of the MARKET.
But this may not be over..or have reached it's low yet.
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I'v not looked in the portfolios yet since the close, but my take is Cash is king right now, to risky either way.
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Just got this up, been on SI, looked over funds, gold and small caps up, rest looked very ify. GOLDX is fund to watch..
If dollar falls it'l likely go up
Sml caps two days up RISCX, 4.7% SSMGX 5,4% , ( VWEGX hottest up 8% in two days ), CREGX, 7% VWMCX .6.6%
will give back some today.
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A small cap run up only works if NEW money comes in, if money just moves from the big to the small, it sets up that big big fall.
about the time the long time sml cap holders get even they
will start out, unless the whole market is moving up.
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Summary, the down trend may not have finished, but big cap
holders from back before 4-20-97 won't get hurt even if the market
goes to 4000.
It's simple fund managers know small caps are hard to exit and
they will get hammered harder in any down trend than Big Caps,
Liquid is king, and will survive with the less damage.
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When the market goes up Big Caps will also be king, even though
small caps may make faster gains for a while, unless they make
it to big cap status they will get cooked in the next sell off.
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The market is made this way, no FA will change it.
When the next real run to the up side does get going, it will produce
the sharpest up curve the market has ever seen since it's
beginning, it will make other up curves look timid even the one
prior to 29.
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Perma Bears who make a few coins now will start shorting the up trend
and go absolutely nuts crying about how over valued everything is,
they will short twice as much as they did in the last two years
and all that will just feed the Bull.
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I don't know when it will start, but Mo Mo big caps are the train
to get on when it does. A posting in small caps may well pay
off better for a while, but only if the big ones are moving up
I know it seems unreal, but that's partly why it works. All in
All no funds have beat the top 19 in the S&P last year.
In 50% of the cases were you get clear sell signals you will
not get a clear buy signal until the Mo Mos have already gone
back up to where they were. This is not true for the small caps,
the market has proven it can go up with out them, so exit small
caps first on any down turn, that's what the big boys do, and
if you fail to play by their rules you will get hit in the head
with a 2X4 , play tulip stocks such as the internuts knowing your
at great risk, or find an internut fund and market time it
I don't know of one that is no load, and I won't use front load
funds under any conditions.
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I may bottom fish the market but it will be BIG caps, or an
index , and while it may have more down side to go so far
I've mangaged to bottom fish her from 8350 down, and have
got out on bounces to were all I've lost is my time and
work. I do want to be in on that last bottom, as I suspect
when she hits bottom the last time the bounce that takes her on
up will be about 10%..
Good luck to all on the BK thread.
Jim
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