Tom Toxby on Aug. 31 you wrote........
Book value on Applied is something like $8.83. With almost all of the other semi-equips trading under or at book value, AMAT has many more points to go. While it is #1 and institutions love it, so it may keep a premium to book, it may not be much. I'm looking for $15.
IMHO unlikely for example take a look at Cisco; last year and earlier in 1998, all other networkers where in the Toilet (ie BAY, 3Com, Cabletron, etc.) yet Cisco held its own, minus a brief visit to the mid 50's. Why??? Simply because CSCO, AMAT, INTC are the 800 pound gorrilla of all funds. They hold cache for the manager. Fund Managers dump everything except their 800 pound Gorillas in their funds. When asked a fund manager wants to say that INTC, CSCO, are AMAT in his/her fund.
Look at today for example, although Maria Barturomo (CNBC) mentioned that an analyst was weak on AMAT, AMAT jumped every time it went between 23 and 23 1/2 then at the end of the trading the range moved to 23 7/8 - 24 1/2. Any other stock would have been down $4-$5 on such negativity, but not AMAT. Traders know this, and use negative comments to buy then wait for a positive news that easily takes the 800 pound gorillas up 3-5 points. If you were a day trader you could bought at low 23 and sell at 24 1/2 today.
I see a run to high 20's low 30's and then a revisit to low 20's.Although I do give you that Friday may be a difficult day due to the long weekend.
Happy Investing!
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