In the long run, we are all dead. But regarding Dell, in the long run it doesn't much matter what price you pay now. Go back five years and have the same conversation. "Should wait until the price drops 2%?" A moot question (in perfect hindsight). Five years ago, the split-adjusted price was about a dollar. Who would care whether they paid $.98 or $1.02, at today's stock price?
The price may go down tomorrow. It may go up. It really doesn't matter. If it goes down, it is a good excuse to buy. If it goes up and you don't buy, it may be a good excuse to kick yourself in five years. You really don't want to tell your grandchildren, "because I wouldn't pay 2% more for Dell, I gave up several million dollars. That's why I didn't set up a trust account for you. Work is good for you anyway. Get away from me and go smoke a joint or something."
The fundamentals on Dell are sound. The PE is roughly the growth rate. They are the best-positioned PC company for Internet sales, taking advantage of a tremendous macro trend. They build a great product. Server sales are on the rise. The world markets are in the dumps. Do you think they still will be in the dumps in ten years? If not, might not Dell sell one or two more PCs world wide?
And then there is Michael, several years my junior, kicking Compaq's butt. And to quote one of this thread's more prolific posters, "But wait, there's more."
(Ex)-INTCfan |
