rbf, re GM, have you looked at the other General? GE, that is - the ultimate bellweather. It dipped below it's 200 day M/A on Monday, bounced back above on Tuesday, then went under again late yesterday and lost more today.
BTW, GE has not been below it's 200 day M/A since 1994.
Couple that with the bottomless trannies (and Dow Theory sell) and the continuing fall in bond yields (in spite of probable Japanese selling), and I'd say Mr. Market is trying to tell us something about the prospects for the economy. A month ago it was just a whisper, but he's speaking up a bit louder now.
I'd say 6400-6500 (30% down from the top plus a little extra to carry to April '97 lows) is very likely and, since we investors tend to go to extremes, lower is far from unlikely. The question is how long last fall's trading range will provide support.
Bob
PS: 800 or less on the S&P. A bit farther on a percentage basis, but on a valuation basis, a 20 PE would put the S&P there or lower. JMO, BWDIK?, etc. |
