After reading through the plethora of very good information Steve and djane have compiled, I have a couple of thoughts.
First, what struck me as incongruent yesterday seems to have been attacked by the pundits. I am referring to the interest rate cut in Brazil. Its very surprising to do that in the middle of a currency crisis. To some extent we have to expect politically motivated policy to rear its ugly head but, Cardoso, unyil now has been able to walk the thin line between fundamental and politically motivated economic policy. I don't understand this one.
Second, it occurred to me that this crisis and the hint of multilateral involvement might be just enough of a spur to move the Brazilian Congress to pass social security reform. It needs to be done and would be the single most helpful action, bar none, to right the Brazil, Inc. ship, as well, by extension, TBR. By now, the listing of the 12 companies is expected to be nothing more than of passing interest. In this market, I don't think it will have any impact.
We need two things: Social security reform (all measures that will reduce the fiscal deficit) in Brazil and structural reform in Japan. Anything in Russia would be icing after these 2 measures. |
