SAP A.G. Message Board - Msg: 5668906

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Technology Stocks : SAP A.G.

SAP 251.89

-0.8%

Nov 7 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jay8088 who wrote (2455)	9/3/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) of 3424

OTOT..I am also an admirer of Mr. Zweig's "winning on Wall Street" but I disagree about the conclusions you draw. One criteria is "extreme deflation" which he defines as a -10% average decline of the Producer Price Index over the last 6 months. That is clearly not the case. The "very high P/E " is no longer the case after the recent decline. In fact considering low inflation and interest rates it probably never reached that level. This relativity factor of earnings isn't discussed probably because so few bears take place in low interest rate and low inflation conditions. Lacking a Barron's , I can't find the 2 exact interest rates used to measure the yield curve. However I do have some that are close-long term corporate bonds 6.45% and 3 month T bill 4.79%. Therefore it's also clear we don't have an inverted yield club. Of course you may be right and we will be in a bad bear soon. By my standards we have already had a bear, even if it was (so far) a mild one.However, IMHO, you can't use Zweig to support this view at this time good investing

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