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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Vector1 who wrote (5579)9/4/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Rocketman  Read Replies (2) of 9719
 
Yeah the volatility is a bit nuts. Seems like there is money to be made on day trading. I'm surprised a long term looker like you cashed out on AVIR. My read is that the company is bringing up the worst case additional clinical, not the FDA at this point. They also stated that they submitted to the FDA without the needed manufacturing and validation data and that they had planned all along to submit it and will do so in October. Could it be that the FDA responded with their letter faster than AVIR expected and that all the FDA needs is what AVIR planned to submit next month? Afterall, they did file an incomplete application. But, since the letter has been issued by the FDA, the company has taken the don't create positive expectations and present the worst case scenario approach that they might have to do an additional clinical? If this is the case, this sucker could rebound in a hurry once this issue has been resolved. This is one with lots of upside long term and quantum leap potential, but with what I see as a minimal downside risk (for a biotech with no revenue going before the FDA with clinical data that is). It seems to me the markets have already discounted it like it will take an extra year - they have lost a years worth of price appreciation and are back to what they were at in June of '97. I still see this as an overreaction by the markets in a panic week. Hell, even ENMD has a market cap higher than AVIR and they are what seems like forever away from the market.

Rman
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