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To: Merritt who wrote (2541)	9/4/1998 7:01:00 AM
From: Thean	Read Replies (2) of 14427

Merritt, All you said about NG is true but these are really old news. LT was buying UNT on the same rationale early in the year and just look at NG price today. While that was history, it does raise serious doubt in my mind as to whether there can be a sharp rise of NG over the next few months. People like Neosis is best to answer question about the supply demand balance of NG even in an El Nina environment. Assuming NG is head higher, I believe the vehicle is to buy NG future, not the drillers (even UNT or UTI). The drillers are subject to bad/soft sentiment in addition to lousy fundamentals. The sentiment needs to improve first before I would move money into them to go long. An improving sentiment in a stabilizing fundamental environment is ground for basing. We are not there yet either in the sentiment or the fundies department. Having said that, OS companies are continuing their rallies in Europe. This is at least a strong dead cat bounce. I do think leaps (at least till Mar 99) of DO, RIG, FGII, VRC, RON and NE are attractive. May trade them today.

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