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Technology Stocks : Primestar/TCI Satellite (TSATA)

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To: Noel who wrote (60)9/4/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: Goodboy  Read Replies (2) of 442
 
Great post. I am not a cable cheerleader. I am very aware of the risks to their transmission systems. I have an article that does quote at DTV executive as saying the failure of DBS 1 would bring them to 140 channels, but that their is existing capacity in the area. That is when he mentioned an unused bird at 119. If this is incorrect, how many channels would DTV end up with if DBS 1 fails completely? Also understand that I believe both DBS 2 and DBS 3 are at risk as well. They are both HS-601's and will be vulnerable to electrostatic discharge. I spoke with GMH people and read the Avaition week article which came out several weeks before their official announcement on the flaw. Aviation week quoted an egineer as saying they have identified in their lab, via simulation, the cause of the failures and that they would correct it on other satellites. That means that they had to do work on birds not yet launched. Which means this will effect every HS-601 launched to date. If they admitted this or raised the % chance of failure, in orbit insurace for their customers would skyrocket.

I believe Primestar has two choices in the event of a failure of the GE bird, that would allow them to move, but not require each dish to be repointed. I am predicting wide spread satellite service interuptions and failures that will result in communications problems of all kinds. Once this hostile space enviornment is recognized by both the Sat industry and the general public (and it will, in 1989 after a solar storm took out half the grid in Canada leaving 7 milliion without power and fried a communications satellite, Time magazine ran a cover story titled "Great Ball of Fire".), then you will see launch delays for new ventures like globalstar and negative perception for all Sat companies. I am placing my bets on the most vulnerable names.
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