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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (580)	9/4/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Robert, The rumours about what may be in the wings this weekend are in fact bullish on the Asian currencies and therefore bearish on the dollar. I was perhaps to cryptic with my comment about the specs but that was what I was hinting at. I don't want to be specific as I have heard little definite and lots of rumour. But you can put me down as cautiously short term bearish on the dollar. I may not have vocalized this but I have been short term bearish on the dollar vs yen since the specs started getting pounded in Russia. I posted a comment a while ago about how they had been funding convergence trades with yen borrowings and how the unwinds would temporarily weaken the dollar. So I guess you can ease up on Lind-Waldock ;) Re your comments regarding the BoP flows we have been discussing. It is worth noting that we still do run a large surplus on services. Henry

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