Russia Part 2...............
Chernomyrdin's Dilemma
by Keith Bush
On August 31, the lower house of Russia's parliament, the Duma, rejected the confirmation of Viktor Chernomyrdin as prime minister by 251 to 94. President Yeltsin immediately resubmitted Chernomyrdin's name. It seems likely that the Duma will press for further concessions, but still reject Chernomyrdin at a second vote to be taken within a week. If the president submits his nomination for the third time and if the Duma rejects him again, then the president can appoint the prime minister, dissolve the Duma, and call for new parliamentary elections. We feel that the horse-trading will end before the third vote and that Chernomyrdin will be confirmed. This could take two more weeks. Meanwhile, the ship of state is drifting without a captain on the bridge amid some nasty looking icebergs.
In formulating his program and in selecting his cabinet members, Chernomyrdin or his successor, is caught between three fires. He must satisfy some minimum demands by the majority forces in the Duma, or else he will not be confirmed at the second or third try. He is under considerable pressure from the oligarchs, whose power, money, and media support were instrumental in securing his election in June-July 1996 and could be pivotal in backing any future presidential bid. But his rescue program for stabilizing the Russian economy and its currency must also meet with the approval of the IMF. After the partial default on its domestic debt and the 90-day moratorium on repaying foreign loans, no Western investors or banks are likely to offer Russia any further financing in the near future. Thus the IMF's next tranche of $4.3 billion-originally scheduled for September 15- is virtually the only source of major external funding in sight and is desperately needed if the next government is to repay wage and pension arrears-Chernomyrdin's avowed first priority-and to service the external debt. Chernomyrdin will need all of his famous capacity for compromise if he is to please all three claimants.
ÿ
csis.org |
