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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Rob Shilling who wrote (624)9/4/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling  Read Replies (3) of 1301
 
O.K. here is my predictions about Russia:

1) The political situation gets resolved by the end of Monday

2) The banking crisis will be shorted lived but will contain a quick collapse of most of the smaller "hedge fund" banks. The larger banks that were in trouble have just been handled by the CB

3) The ruble will stabilize after Victor C. is voted in by the Duma

4) The ruble "limited emission" plus stabilization of the ruble after the government appoints Victor C. will quell any severe unrest

5) Thanks to a weaker ruble and higher oil prices, there will be a current account surplus possibly showing up in September's numbers

6) Tax collection will improve by January

7) A few months after all of the "economic dictatorship" measures have been enacted the ruble will settle at a rate of 10-13 per dollar

8) Russian GDP will be positive in 1999

9) And of course, Russian stocks will rise.
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