I didn't ask about the buyback, as I figured they couldn't give an answer anyway. I just asked about the marketable securities, and when he asked "is that all". I said "yes, unless you want to tell me about some big orders". He replied "you'll have to read about that" and I laughed...
I have seen some evidence in the trading that would suggest that the buyback might be underway. Certainly, they can't expect to buy much cheaper than this. I've seen considerable buying at the offer in size on downticks, which would at least suggeset some sort of accumulation by somebody.
Here's my speculation: the company, like anybody accumulating a large amount of stock over a period of time, is going to be patient. They are not going to "chase" the stock up. Instead, they will take the opportunity to buy when the price is weak. The market-makers, of course, know that they have a steady buyer they can unload to, but one that is patient, so they are not about to run-up the stock knowing they will lose that steady buyer. They just like knowing that there is a guaranteed buyer out there that they can flip any stock to that they can acquire below the buyer's price. So, they may tend to try to keep the price low until the buying is done.
If the price gets away, the buyer is going to stop, and things get less predictable. Market-makers like predictability. They'd like nothing more than to have a stock that NEVER changes price, and all they do all day is buy at 10 and sell at 10 1/8. :)
I could be all wet on this, but the market action HAS been odd, and this is the only explanation I can think of. :) I'm not one of these people who is going to say that MMs are "manipulating" because the price is dropping. I just think that the trades at the offer on downticks are unusual. If the stock were really going to hell, you'd see the sizable trades at the bid, as individual investors bail out and sell at market, and there haven't been many of these, at least not in size.
If the company IS buying-back, I'd say their broker is doing it skillfully, if rather visibly. :) I'd offer the suggestion that it is possible to buy BARR on Island at the bid (I bought all that I have at the bid), which would be less visible. |
