Analysis of Ayatollahs V/S Ameer-ul-Momeneen-conflict!
Historical Background--
The fight between Sunni Islam and Shia Islam for the supremacy and the leadership of Islamic world, this is a conflict which dates back to the times of Prophet, soon after his demise the 'House of Hashim' led by prophet's son Ali refused to accept the leadership of Ummayds, known as Banu Ummayahs were the amongst the most noblest of the clans amongst ''Quriesh'' as the Meccans nobles were called, they were reluctant to accept the 'House of Hashim' which before prophet-hood was not as powerful as Ummayahs.
This was the conflict after Prophet in which Ummayds succeeded in leading the newly expanding Islamic World. The most important event of this schism in Islam is the 'Battle of Jamal' between wife of Prophet Ayesha and Ali the son in law and the fourth Caliph-- this 'schism' finally led to Karbila where Hussien the grandson of Prophet was killed with the entire descendents of Prophet Mohammed-- the only survivor was Zain-ul-Abiddin, that is how Ummayads succeeded in control of Islam in its early part, but the followers of Ali and Hussien under the sibling alive after the tragic events of Karbila called themselves as Shia's-- present Iran practices Shia orthodoxy whereas across borders are Sunnis who consider ascension of Ummayads as legitimate, 70% of Islamic World is Sunni whereas 30% is Shia.
What is the conflict now---
The conflict between Iran and Afghanistan is natural consequence of mistrust that dates back to centuries, thousands of years have passed the Ayatollahs are determined to prove that they are the rightful heirs of God's will whereas Mulla Umar supported by Saudis and Pakistani is the standard bearer of the new Islamic revolution, the orthodox Islam which forces people to shut up, trim their beards and stop education of young girls. The free will and expression is forbidden under Ayatollahs version and Ameer ul Momneen's version, the Ayatollahs are bit surprised that what Jinni they have let free with their Islamic revolution in 1979 a new more aggressive kind of revolution in Afghanistan has put Ayatollah's Islam look like a progressive liberalism.
Consequences--
This is going to further impoverish people in my region, it will have very strong repercussions for my region. Iran has strange bedfellows in this game Russia, and CIS have found the new revolutionaries across the borders in Afghanistan as too difficult to handle, they are backing the milder revolutionaries Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Axis is supporting Taleban for different reasons, Pakistan wants Turkmenistan Oil to flow through Afghanistan to a point outside Strait of Hurmoz and Saudis want to clip the wings of Shia revolution by supporting Mulla Umer they cut the support of Iran to troubles in their eastern provinces of Dhahran where Shia's dominate..
Markets--
Oil prices will be firmer initially as brokers and short term traders think that area is close to Strait of Hormuz, it will have no consequences on Oil flows as such it is going to be a local conflict very lethal and deadly for both the parties, mankind will be poorer as in this age of reason and logic the two radical versions fight their battles of ideology with human cannon fodder...Iran may take a lesson from all the powers who have tired to invade Afghanistan, their Bays of pigs with Afghanis dissidents will start a much bigger conflict in the region, the area where Iran has its eyes on Pakistan want to be freed from bandits so that Unocal may build that Trans Afghan -Pak line to transport oil from Turkmenistan to Gawadar.. Burning icons of jealousies are found in all societies I have only one desire I wish we just grow up..Lets move on, Iran wants its captive diplomats back who were involved with Northern Alliance, an alliance backed by Iran and opposed to Taleban brand of Islam. They want Vienna convention rules to be respected for integrity and safety of diplomats, if these diplomats are not returned war will be waged but look who his talking about Vienna Convention and respect of diplomats.. In this conflict US will be able to get Osama bin Laden tied up badly, if conflict starts the guys with green turbans needs US help and the help will only come if Osama is tied, so every party has its own interests I am seeing a making of Somalia, how much Somalia has affected markets the choice is yours, however it would be one of the bloodiest conflict if it erupts the Iran Mujaheedddin's and Afghani Taleban bring to memory the conflict of Jamal where seventy thousand lost their lives.. This is going to be far worst the proxy war will have all the elements money and weapons and remember Iran will fight this war as proxy for Northern Alliance and CIS with backing of Russia.. |
