To All Long on DELL: Peter Lynch interview regarding forecasting:
quote.com
PETER LYNCH, VICE CHAIR, FIDELITY MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH: Well, you only find out, it's like, you know, the football
games. You know, before the game, they say it's going to be very close. They don't know who's going to win. And then after, they give you every detail of what play they made wrong, what mistake they made. And they give you 67,000 words of what went wrong. No one ever knows until after the fact whether it's a small correction, a big correction. The important thing to know is, there are corrections in the market.You know, since 1970, there's been 13 10-percent declines. There's been 4 percent, four times the market's decline over 25 percent, since 1970. Despite that, the stock market's been a good place to be. If you don't understand that, you're off to a rough start. I mean, that does not make you a good investor. You have to get this information. You have to become educated.
GHARIB: Peter, I've heard you say before that it gets darkest before pitch black. How close are we to pitch black?
LYNCH: I won't know. I'll never know. I mean, when I ran Magellan for 13 years, nine times the market went down. I had a perfect record. It went down all nine times. But when it came back, I did better. I mean, I just, I would love to get, you know, next year's Wall Street Journal. They just don't, seem to deliver it to me. I'd love to know the future. I don't worry about this stuff. People that are going to
do that are just not going to do well. In fact, I just developed this brochure. I worked about six months on this to get this out, this brochure with Fidelity. This helps explain a lot of things about bonds, about stocks, about markets, about volatility, about recessions. And it has a great ten question quiz. You can get this from calling 1-800-FIDELITY.
And this is from a guy who is truly long on all his investment |
