oh if Hillary could just read the correspondence of the ranging bulls...
By: dwiane
Reply To #18 by Fiondella
Tuesday, 1 Sep 1998 , 12:40 PM EDT
Post # of 65
Hi Paul,
I was hoping for a public panic this AM.
Wanted to buy some GE or LU short term calls for the rebound.
Now I'm looking at puts as they reach resistance.
GE $85ish, LU around $79-80.
Can't believe this is over so quickly.
Could kick myself for selling my AMZN puts yesterday. It should go to at least $50, eventually
lower.
Your tone toward NOVL seems very positive here.
Regards,
Dwight
By: dwiane
Reply To #21 by Fiondella
Wednesday, 2 Sep 1998 , 11:36 AM EDT
Post # of 65
Are you positive on NOVL because of fundamentals like revenue about to explode, profits, new
products, etc., or because of the psychology of the market changing toward them?
While Clinton has avoided "wars" he hasn't been shy about putting our troops in harms way in
places like Somalia, Bosnia, etc.
My take is that those escapades can be blamed on the U.N.
His hands will be "clean" when something goes wrong.
It would be typical of his cowardly persona, if this is true.
Dwight
By: Fiondella
Reply To #22 by dwiane
Wednesday, 2 Sep 1998 , 12:14 PM EDT
Post # of 65
Is it revenue or market sentiment?
I'm positive on Novell because of the way it behaved in the sell off. Although we need a real
technical analysis of the charts, the following appeared to me to be happening.
Had it broken below 9 1/2 it would have been negative beyond the general 1998 market gain
which it lost with the rest of the market, but it held. The volume increased dramatically as the
stock moved up in a U shaped curve. NOVL outpaced the market in the rebound. This leads me
to believe that NOVL was perceived as a place into which to rotate money.
As to revenues, I have noted the marginal quarter to quarter increase. While that is positive on
the revenue front, it is only enough to say the compan yhas staunched the flow of blood. However
the number of Betas out there, the jumping on the Netware 5.0 bandwagon of both CPQ and
INTC, all indicate a strong acceptance of the new NOS vs the reception of 4.11. It remains to be
seen whether this revenue increases dramatically and there are many other negatives about
NOVL (such as the execs not buying!!!) but I do not think these overwelm a short term buy into
the stock.
Salah would wait until he actually sees the revenues. He would then buy the stock and get the
majority of the gain. I on the other hand beleive that this market will dump money into any stock
with revenue growth POTENTIAL. The last two days proved that to me.
Novell has some resistance at 10 3/4 on the upside. We need to see it move through 10 3/4
soon to confirm that we are seeing less "buy on the dip" and more buy for the future.
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