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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 117.44-1.6%3:59 PM EST

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To: Sonki who wrote (63839)9/5/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: jim kelley  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
Sonki,

I do detailed projections for companies in which I invest.
I try to get a good grasp of their competitive position and the strength and honesty of management. This provides a basis for the development of a perceived value of its future prospects. If I were daytrading I would want to have this kind of insight available.

To simply try to trade the mood swings of the market without a good grasp of the fundamentals seems like a fools mission.

INTC trades in the 18-28 PE range because that is the range of perceived earnings growth.

If DELL traded at its earnings growth rate YOY we would get the following stock price:

72 X 4 X .5 = $144/share

Remember Greenspan's speech did not mention past earning but rather future earning as being the basis of the value of the stock. This is the fallacy of using the trailing earnings as a basis for the determination of the appropriate P/E.

Thus a better way to determine stock value is to forecast the earnings over the next year and then to apply the present value formula to determine the fair value of the stock.

Jim Kelley
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