Ah, Peter, glad to see somebody is out there.
The odds for my list to happen may be kind of high. But, as for just being able to make money in Russian stocks rolling a string of 7's may not be the best interpretation of the odds (IMHO). It is more accurate to say that to make money in Russian stocks you need to NOT roll snake eyes. Snake eyes would be nationalization of ROS and LUKOY. ROS and LUKOY are so low now, there is easy upside in them if anything gets better. That is especially true for LUKOY which has most of its revenues in dollars and costs in rubles. Remember, both companies were/are profitable and had good balance sheets, especially LUKOY.
LUKOY is the best buy of all. It is trading at 1/6 sales. It is the largest oil company by reserves in the world. To get more desperately needed investment in Russia's oil fields, the government cannot nationalize the oil industries.
Also, markets are supposed to price in news. We have already had default, devaluation, inflation, panic, and political uncertainty. Unless Russia falls back to communism you can win big with Russian stocks. If Victor C. gets voted in that should add some calm to the situation.
Remember I am long term in a sea of short term investors. Capitalism has a way of working things out for you. Sure Russia already has problems, but capitalism has made inroads already and it is almost irreversible. At least one of the Oligarchs has lost a ton of money on the SBS-Agro bank failure. Since he was not efficient and rational with his money he loses. That is market forces at work. It seems the banks are the worst problem in Russia, not because they are failing, but because they need to fail. Most of them are just gambling hedge funds. Russia could come out a lot stronger after this crisis. But I am not talking next week, I am talking 1 year or more. The stocks will reflect this earlier though probably.
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