Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right?

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To: Justin Franks who wrote (50)	9/6/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: Jay8088	Read Replies (1) of 259

I am forecasting DJIA in the 4000's by the end of October. IMHO, the bull market of '90s are based on two fundamental assumptions: 1. The end of the cold war and decrease of military budget & federal deficits 2. The dream of worldwide free market capitalism and prosperity it would bring. Well as of today, it has become fairly clear that both of these assumptions are dead. The future of Russia with her stockpiles of Nuc's is deeply uncertain. 80% of world population is experiencing financial collapse and is unlikely to buy our products. Given the collapse of these two thesis under our bull market, I think we are already experiencing a rapid re-evaluation of the US stock market. A great example is Coke. With the emerging economies collapsing why was it selling at 60 time earning? Even after a terrifying decline it is still selling at unheard of 40 times earning. The fair value may be more like 20 times earning even under a most benign outcome. So if Coke is an indicator we are only half way down to the bear market bottom at best.

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