"1. this is a liquidity driven market - too much money chasing too few stocks. money supply, for the first time in a LOOOOOONG time, is not growing. BAD NEWS. less money becomes smarter, more cautious money.'
Don't you mean too little money chasing too many stocks?
The glut of IPO's is symbolic, having only served to exacerbate this very problem, particularly in the small company ranks.
"2. net redemptions of $2 billion a week from stock funds. if this trend continues it could get nasty as the tail is not big enough to wag the dog anymore."
See my comments in the following regarding distribution...
#reply-5681604
"3. china is putting out the devaluation trial balloon.
4. latin america will most likely devalue soon.
5. japan will sell bonds as the dollar weakens b/c they will lose money due to a weakening dollar. upward pressure on rates.
6. reducing rates may stimulate production in a global glut environment. talk about potentially throwing gas on a fire..."
Global deflationary forces may be more powerful than these inflationary factors. Time will tell.
"7. the president lied under oath. congress will whole heartedly discuss impeachment proceedings. perjury is an important issue. oh, and they HATE bill clinton. i bet they start impeachment proceedings."
Clinton's troubles, although historic, should have little impact, IMHO, on the financial markets in the longer term. Although he is hated (and it is the Dems who are now more upset than the Repubs), the backlash against the Donkeys will favor a continued growth in the Republican majorities, a bullish development. Further, a weakened and crippled Slickster who is able to hang-on to his presidency will surely increase the odds of a republican president in 2000.
"8. the banking system collapsing is indicative of the end of the bull. has bob looked at cvi and cmb (i have b/c i own puts on cmb :-) lately? did he call their 40-50% declines? not a chance nor a clue.
9. nobody is scared yet. there is no REAL FEAR. if we get FEAR, then look out below..."
Agreed on both counts.
Don;t forget the effect of Y2K in the coming months!! I think we have our house in order here, but the likes of Japan, Europe and most third-world economies give me great cause for concern!!
DD |
