Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (26662)	9/6/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Hi Bill: Actually, I don't think that we are that far apart. 250-300 points UP! I think that is a possibility. A one-/two-day rally if Russia, Far East Asia comply (and there are some indications that they may). But I strongly doubt that we will see anything more substantial than that. This market is not much different than it was a year ago. Well, I don't agree with this one. A year ago earnings expectations were high and were generally justified. Now they have decreased dramatically, but not yet sufficiently. We are very probably already in a (temporary?) profit recession. The last time the Fed ridiculed investors' expectations of profit growth as much as Greenspan did Friday was, if I remember right, shortly before the 87 correction. Earnings warnings' season could start in earnest as early as this week. On balance, I still suspect that we are near one of these several, false bottoms in the first leg of the 29 crash and that the next leg down will be the most severe one for the moment. Regards, Phil

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