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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII)

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To: Alejandro who wrote (8173)9/6/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: limtex  Read Replies (2) of 12468
 
Ali, SW and Gabor -

What a time to be an investor!!!!

1. Japan
Well one of the things I said we could predict came true only this weekend i.e. Japan and the Rubin/Greenspan/Obuchi meeting in California. All the serious media comment i've seen today is that the meeting failed to get the Japanese to do anything more than they are already doing which as we know is very very little very very late. So as far as predictions go the Japanese were right on target. One commentator calls the Japanese economy the mother of all slumps.The markets would tank on Monday with just this news but we've got some more....

2. Russia

The new Russian plan if you can call it that is the economics of the madhouse and has the IMF and all the G7 finance and leadership guys in a state of appoplexy this weekend. There are literally no words to describe the lunacy that is emanting from Moscow other perhaps than they have all gone collectively stark raving mad.

3. Banks/Investment Banks

Watch out...if anything goes wrong here then we're really in forit. That will not be the end but if it happens it will be the beginning of the end.

4. Clinton

This is daily becoming more embarassing. Do we know the date by which the report will be given to the Congress? If so in that week we can expect a tank or two.

5. S. America

Fankly I really don't understand what the fuss is all about here. I mean (a) S America being in a financial mess I wouldn't have thought was exactly earth shatering news and (b) I thought they were making good progress in "reform" of their financial systems.

Still the very mention of Brazil or Mexico seem enough to knock fifty points off the Dow and twenty off the NAZ so I suppose someone in S America is going to announce something this week and whatever or whoever or even if it is good news the market will tank when it hears the very mention of a S.American country.

6. Italy

There was areport this weekend that the Italian governemtn has beeb supporting the Lire. Now normally who on earth would bat an eyelid about that but on Tuesday morning well........

Funny things were so nice in July. One day off went Mr G into the congress and told them he thougth stock prices were too high. I guess he has been proved right.

Anyway the point of this missive is that WCII is going to do OK but the market IMHO is in for a major drop and so whats the best thing to do...sell puts on the S&P and the Dow or the European exchanges as well?

The point is that we should be able to do all right in this market in that it should be just as possible to make money when you know the market will tank every other day just as it was possible to make money in the last couple of years by always buying the dips. So I 'm not being gloom and doom but I think just recognizing the practicalities of teh current market.

Lets just think forward to tuesday morning......9.30am and we're watching the Dow.....with all of the above waht do you think it will be doing moveing up sharply or dropping like the Titanic?

Regards,

L
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