Excellent points.
My guess - Bob strongly believes in his timing model. If the market continues to erode, he will go down with it, IMO. He will follow his model. He will probably closely scrutinize it, to see if there is something he can/should tweak. But as long as it is saying "buy", he cannot exit the market, regardless of what the market is doing. That is his plan, and I'm sure he will stick with it.
OTOH, if we're down 30%, can he continue to *believe* in his model? It shall be interesting.
Congratulations on your foresight and level-headedness to sell out in July (at least, your IRA portions, to avoid tax consequences I'm sure). In retrospect, I'd have much preferred to do that, too, rather than buy in August. Oh, well. :)
Ken |
