Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right?

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To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/7/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (1) of 259

Bill, I just read this thread tonight for the first time. Hopefully some rational discourse will eventually appear. In the meantime, welcome to investors amateur hour <g>. More seriously, what I don't understand about the bulls these days is that the greatest overvaluation in history is so obvious and known, yet they keep applying the same "rules of thumb" that worked last year and think they still apply. At SI I read several threads and study the charts at decisionpoint.com, although other sites also offer good information. Some threads are worth reading just to see how messed up people can get by following their favorite guru that has led them all the way through the bull market (100% invested, and they still are). I find my sanity at TSO (Tech Stock Options, which is a misnomer because they don't do tech stock options anymore - it's become a good source for short term general market trading inputs). It is also quite bearish, since July. People, these things don't play out instantly. Patience. Patience. The bear market is an evolving entity. The "Goldilocks" environment has been here for a long time, and not just in stocks. Last year I wrote (not on SI) that I would be looking for a crisis in confidence as one of the keys to the end of the bubble. Look at Clinton now and tell me that he has the confidence of leaders from around the world. Do you really think he can handle a world crisis now? What is going to happen when something goes very wrong - and everything has been so very right for so very long that only a dodo could think it will continue for much longer. I am not predicting the end of the world. However, I suspect that the next few years will be most interesting times, true to the real meaning of the Chinese curse.

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