Carl, considering the beating these markets have taken in the last three months (many of them cut in half or at least 30%), I think that this would be a rally in a bear market, not the bottom. We will see if tomorrow night the enthusiasm continue. The Nikkei will be face with a serious resistance at about 15,300, I do not think it will take this out. Until Tuesday, the Greenspan rally in Asia may very well subside. By the way, in his full speech there was exactly one minuscule sentence that could have been construed as leaning toward relaxation, or at least examining such an "impossible possibility" (to use Greenspan "speak"). I doubt Greenspan would want to remove the element of fear in a market that was driven by greed (what AG calls "psychological behavior"), unless this fear creates the danger of a melt down. So, I would play this rally if it comes, quite carefully. I doubt we will see 8000 before we see a new low under 7400. We may get close, but IMHO, that is about it.
Zeev |
