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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 204.41-1.0%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: djane who wrote (53809)9/7/1998 4:08:00 AM
From: hitesh puri  Read Replies (1) of 61433
 
Report from Singapore. Singapore ?! What the heck is Hitesh doing in Singapore ? Well, I am on my way to India for 3 weeks and I have this layover. Changi Airport has this Internet center which is nice.
Anyway coming back to Ascend. I had a chance to get the main points of Al Tobia's (influential Montgomery networking analyst) recent ASND upgrade report.
1. He feels ASND downside is a mere 10% in a selloff.
2. Feels todays fair value is 42 with all this market negativity.
3. Without market negativity and taking into account Ascends past strong results and another ongoing strong quarter should make stock go to 50's very easily.
4. Ascend is #1 in Core switching and Remote Access and SRA acq makes it even a stronger leader.
5. Lucent will try to acquire and if deal is done upto $62 per ASND share then it will not be dilutive to LU. Higher price is short term pressure on LU. (My guess is an offer of around 67 at the time of announcement which will quickly go to high 50's as LU sinks due to arbitration plays).
6. Ascend is undoubtedly a leader in Carrier and ISP market products and Cisco is behind (recently even Chamber admitted to that in an interview with usual spin that Cisco has competing products coming out. When ???). Hence LU wants ASND bad.

On a similar note with regards to LU : Morgan Stanley's analyst report on 09/04 detailing a day old meeting with Lucent CFO dispels rumors that LU was feeling softness in Carrier order rates (hence LU was weaker than CSCO recently). CFO feels everything on track.

Just wanted to update you guys since communicating from India may not be that easy. Will be back by Oct 3rd. Hope I dont miss too many buying opportunities with my favourites. Way I look at it is that in the short term whateve s**t had to hit the fan has hit and splattered on the wall. Now either I am underestimating the total amount of s**t out there or the fan is overloaded and is about to quit.

-hitesh
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