Steve, no doubt, rising "dis-employment" could be
one of the most important influences in stock-markets.
However, esp. in Germany the trend to export of working-places seems to be broken. More, a cooler calculation came up during our mini-crizis with the result that
- production must happen where the consumer lives
- every traffic, esp. every transport, is waste of money
- outsourcing means loss of influence and win of risk*
- productivity in Germany is better than in "cheap" regions
- most regions are only temporary "cheap"
- abroad-production generates the competition of tomorrow
No clue how these trends can be seen percentually, no doubt, whether this is an international trend or only local here. Usually, a loca German trend will be copied when we have better numbers here than other countries - and this is happening just now.
Gates predicted "information economy" years ago, when Netscape was still a well known company. No doubt, he was right as you are, but he was right too predicting that we need first to cross over a percentage of web-acceptance where even technical infrastructure as business-rentability becomes sufficient for a self-running effect. Actually we are 3-times shy of this acceptance, and we need at least 10 more years till the worldwide bandwith-problem stops killing important trust-destroyers of todays internet like inacceptable video- and audio-quality.
Every person who is able to use the web and who can sell his workforce over the net is enough intelligent and informed too for optimizing his income. Yet in a mid-sight I see more influence in the competition of societies than in a real workprice-competition: f.e. a harmonization of worldwide tax-rules could be nearer than we think today.
All these effects cannot be seen generally - if we suppose growing problems worldwide, we can deduct an increasing demand for basic needs. Industries investing in "clean" (healthy) products - say food or wear - could bring growing-rates like Intel did "yesterday". Instead paying for oil we will pay a lot of money for untoxicated water. Today the first companies pay money for reading their ads - tomorrow the first cities will try to attract citicens arguing with a lack of noise. I fear, that's not that far as we believe today.
So - I use these postings for considering - I must search for alternatives to the current way of investing in stock-markets. If it was possible, I already shorted business-real-estate...
Biertischgespr„che... (beer-table-talk - what's an ad„quate term in english?) Sorry to all who read these postings hoping to learn the near future of Intels stock-price.
Jury
* "just-in-time" is the 4th lie. The first three lies:
- 1. Your check has gone out yesterday.
- 2. I love you.
- 3. I draw him back before it happens. |
