George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (705)	9/7/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: John Biddle	Read Replies (2) of 5853

Sounds like you believe, as I do, that it will be easier to pick winners in the Telecom Equipment arena than it will in carriers of any kind. If equipment companies can stay at the front of the curve, they can do much better than those who have to make do with the products they sell. Those products go obsolete before they're written off. The happy seller, however, is off selling the next generation product to the competitor of the previous buyer. I see the telecom era as somewhat analogous to the chip era. Each powered by the geometric growth in the power of the underlying technology. The Telecom Equipment vendors will continue to make products which make bandwidth both more plentiful and inexpensive. If the leading carriers don't use the technology, the hungry upstarts do. Prices come down, customers churn, uncertainty abounds. Next, another round of higher powered equipment sends us off to the races again. It might be hard for the carriers to make a ton in this environment, where they either have to spend too much to keep up, or spend less and profit more while their market share dwindles. But Cisco, Lucent and Tellabs should do very well indeed.

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