Ciena (CIEN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 207.29

-0.7%

Nov 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Mama Bear who wrote (2711)	9/7/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: Daniel W. Koehler	Read Replies (1) of 12623

Barb Re: arb spread. You're right it's gone from .67 to .61 last week. If the arbs have "flipped" their positions(long TLAB short CIEN) it will be atypical of most merger plays because it assumes a broken deal. I just can't reconcile that with Birck's statements, unless Birck is engaging in a Pontius Pilate defense - he wants to have the shareholder's exculpate him by breaking the deal themselvesl. I rather think the arb flip was motivated by general market panic, a long weekend and a flight to quality. I look for that spread to narrow as Wall Street goes on a buying spree next week in response to Asian market strength, Greenspan's comments on easing and the 131 yen:$ ratio. Market correction has run 6 weeks, fundamentals are largely unchanged (interest rates low, commodity prices low save a blip up in oil prices, earnings ok) . We need a 5 day rally to squeeze the shorts out. Let's hope that Clinton doesn't implode and we get a gov't shut down again. I think the Reps will let the weakened Clinton serve out his term so they can run against him as the #1 campaign issue. In this climate the Libertarian Party ought to pull a lot of folks off the fences. Ciao, Daniel

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