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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: stock bull who wrote (803)9/7/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Stock Bull: Re: "In fact, I heard this morning that the head of the Russian central bank quit the job, and the Duma, once again, rejected Viktor Chernomyrdin. One more vote coming up and, if he's rejected once again, the Duma is dissolved. Back to square one."

I am impressed that so far the governmental process as defined by the Russians is going pretty much as designed. Looking at the bright side, the Duma communists have not tried a coup. How is that for positive spin? But I remember back in April, Kiriyenko did not get the nod until the third vote and nobody cared back then. But times have changed with the currency crisis. The best scenario is the view that the communists and others are holding out to the last minute for the best available deal before giving Chernomyrdin the nod. That is just the way negotiations work most times. Remember, if Chernomyrdin goes, so does the Duma. And I have never known too many politicians who are dead set on voting themselves out of a job let alone one of the few remaining jobs where the worker actually gets paid <G>. Moreover, it is my understanding that dissolving the Duma would enable Yeltsin to appoint the prime minister of his choice, meaning Chernomyrdin could just take office anyway. The government would then have no need for the Duma's approval for passing legislation.

I have just made the best case scenario for investors. With all that said, the situation is highly fluid and I am not placing any bets. Next vote is on September 14th.

I think we rally tomorrow here in the US on Greenspan's speech. Part of it will be short covering. Who would want to short Greenspan? Whether the rally has legs depends on what the news cycle brings.
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