Carl,
I had been monitoring a smaller megaphone that formed from last Wednesday's (9/2)open. It was broken on Thursday's gap down, immediately targeting the 958 area. Thursday's ascending triangle action had lured me into giving up on that target being met, but when 973 gave way Friday afternoon, it resulted in a reverse break of the ascending triangle, targeting the 957 area. Thus I was not surprised that it rallied from the 955 area on Friday, and was scrambling to hedge Oct. puts after these targets were met.
As it turned out, my call for the end of B of 2 on Friday morning was early. The B of 2 downswing didn't complete until the lows Friday afternoon. That would put us in a C of 2 rally that could complete late Tuesday/early Wednesday (Bookending the A of 2 rally that lasted a day and a quarter [9/1 & 9/2]), making that timeframe my preferred target for closing my hedge longs and opening Sept. puts.
I definitely see a sizeable megaphone that began around 11:45am on Thursday. The lower line held the Friday's late decline, and I have the upper line in the 1006 area for Tuesday's open, and by the end of the day, up near 1020. A break of this upper line would target 25 pts. higher minimum. A break of the lower line, at 951 on open, and 940 by the end of the day Tuesday, would target 39 pts. lower.
The bottoming action late Friday seems to be targeting 1007 to 1016 for the end of this C of 2 upmove. So that's the area I'd like to be pulling the trigger on some puts, especially if/when we get a cute little setup.
I believe we then begin a plummet to the downside (wave 3 of 3 of 1 of A), catch back up with the lower megaphone line later in the week and break it by early next week.
Regards,
David |
