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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting

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To: Judy who wrote (6854)	9/8/1998 1:44:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	of 34804

Judy, Greetings from the "Strictly Drilling Thread"! I cannot comment on technical PF Charts- I do not have the skill! I'll just note from a substantive perspective that contrary to popular press, OPEC has done a good job of maintaining price discipline ever since 1987 with two exceptions, the Gulf War and the intentional Saudi supply increase in Nov 97. Since 1987 and indeed looking forward for the next five years at least there will be an OPEC excess crude capacity- i.e. more supply than demand. Yet during that same stretch OPEC has held the price of crude/bbl remarkably in the $15-20/bbl range. So yes Mr. Edelstein may have a good point. The $15/bbl level if sustained, suggests that OPEC discipline is falling back into line as has been thehistorical case. So here the substantive history of oil prices seems to support the rational technical position that a sustained $15/bbl price for say WTI oil means good news moving forward in the crude oil market... Sincerely, Doug F.

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