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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR)

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To: David Wise who wrote (8238)9/8/1998 6:26:00 AM
From: Ploni  Read Replies (1) of 10479
 
One reason I'm buying is that I like their $15 - 17 million dollar market cap with revenues around $100 million.

Maybe you should invest in supermarkets: they often have incredibly low price/sales ratios.

I don't think CS First Boston is going to ruin their reputation by using the floorless trick to benefit from what could be seen as stock manipulation.

Month Shares Short
08/98 __293,380
07/98 __666,157
06/98 __607,563
05/98 __956,788
04/98 __914,672
03/98 1,241,017
02/98 1,455,112
01/98 1,673,744
12/97 1,002,638
11/97 __808,690
10/97 __875,946
09/97 __962,660

Someone shorted the stock heavily in December. Do you know who it was? Even if someone decides to manipulate a stock, the odds of being caught are almost nil. The SEC doesn't have the resources to go after everyone.

Anyway, I think the market has built-in the worst case scenario for Osicom. The worst case would have been a quarterly revenue falling way below $20 million.... Worst case was also hinged on Osicom appearing to be strapped for cash.

I think cash-flow is more critical than revenue, and thus the worst case is that the market will price Osicom lower and lower, as they continue to see dropping revenues, shut down facilities and lay-off employees.

I think The Street has also taken into account the fact that Osicom management has an extremely high Pinocchio Quotient.

They expect to increase their cash position next quarter

Will that be before or after the NMS listing, the ABCN launch, the massive sales of ICX's, GigaMuxes, NetARMS, and Chinese Widgets?

I'll admit I'm in a position where I have to see the positive side and therefor have looked harder for it. It's not nearly as hard right now as it used to be.

I think this is called self-hypnosis.

Although the stock price is drastically down after the 1 for 3 and big market crunch, I actually feel better about the prospects than 3 months ago. For me, averaging down makes sense.

I'm speechless.
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