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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega

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To: Linda Pearson who wrote (1458)9/8/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: HardMoney  Read Replies (1) of 10072
 
Why I bought back.....for those who care :)

I have followed IOM since 1995 and followed all the Motley Fool hype. It seems to me that everything they thought was great about the company was it's potential. Well now we see if Mr. Sierk can deliver: Sell as many drives as you can with margins decreasing as sales are increasing and then relying on the disk's fat margins to earn money.
I believe the deal with IBM is huge because of a few reasons:
BTW I believe Zip must become standard on almost 80% or more of all computers for home and business.Furthermore......

1. IBM IS PUTTING ITS NAME ON IT!!!! When was the last time big blue put it's name plate on something it didn't actually produce.....must protect the rep you know........This to me means that the quality control issues are now history. Now getting costs down enough to produce positive margins on the drives is their next objective, a small 1 penny profit this quarter will put that to rest, but I suspect we won't see a profit until Q4.

2. The line of IBM computers that are getting "Zipped" are primarily commercial machines used in offices which produce sales much bigger for IBM than it's retail lines, a market, rival CPQ, would want to attack. Now Compaq is , to the best of my knowledge, lagging IBM in this field. Now if you also remember CPQ only Zipped there home pc lines, not the commercial lines. CPQ will now have to match IBM....that would mean essentially that every computer CPQ, the biggest computer maker in the world, makes will be Zipped.
Assuming IBM responds agressively to CPQ's move they will attack CPQ's reatail prevelance by Zipping their retail lines.....IMO if this should happen then the Zip standard is garanteed and all we'll have to do is sit back and make money of the disks......forget clik forget Jaz....if Zip doesn't make it IOM doesn't make it.

3. New CEO at or before earnings...can only soften a disappointing Q3 or kick start a rally.....I watched it gleefully happen to UIS from $7 to almost $30 at one point.

4. At best Clik! is at the same growth stage as Zip was at '94 Comdex...it could take off or it could fall flat on its face. I believe however that if IOM can find the $$$$ to keep Clik! going for a couple of years it will eventually take on. IOM is way far ahead of the market in this field,IMHO.

5. Jaz:
IOM must discontinue Jaz1 and replace it with Jaz2 at Jaz 1 prices( today's decrease is an example ) and then add a Jaz4 line....sound crazy? IOM bought Nomai's 2 Gig "Single" platter technology....how about two 2 gig platters...

6. AT .56 times sales the market has essentially priced all the bad news into it already . It's trading at roughly 2 times book....remember THIS IS the tech sector. Its got alot more upside than down from here.

Frank
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