Bosco, thread: It's the smart money that's using today's rally as an opportunity to sell into the idiots' buying frenzy - that's why the market's been moving no better than sideways since 10am. We all know this is total bull sh-- and that there's no reason for the rally. A 1/4% rate cut won't appease hungry, mutineering russians, nor will it hide the pending financial rectal exam results on the Japanese banks due out any day, nor will it roll over Brazil's $8B of ST debt due late Oct., which will have to be rolled over at crippling rates as they emerg. mkt. risk premium has skyrocketed since russia devalued, nor will it halt pressure on the Real (which is now HUGE since Columbia devalued, as Brazil is the 2nd largest coffee exporter - yet another nightmare for Cardoso to ponder).
Oh, and a rate cut won't save a certain president from impeachment as even his own party has turned their backs on 'em.
This is how I figure the math would be:
Yeltsin coup = Dow -700
JPN Banks all deemed insolvent by Intl. Acct. Standards = Dow -400
Brazil devalues or Mex. Peso weakens another 10% = Dow -500
Clinto resigns/impeached/indicted after Starr report issd. = Dow -700
All in all its roughly another 2,000 points lower, and I anticipate each event on the list having a >50% chance of occuring. So all today does is establish another excellent level to get short, much like with the yen.
I couldn't believe S&P futures were up over 20 points last night into today. Who are these people?
Everyone will pull there $ out of mutual funds when they are approaching the break even level - and after the above events take hold, that'll mean everyone who'd jumped onboard the last 2 years.
Even if the above events don't occur, the economy will fall on its face over the coming months. Why? Mr. & Mrs. John Doe have watched their 401K go from $100,000 to less than $80,000 over the past 2 months. Thus, they will either skip that dream vacation they've been planning or forego the purchase of that new car they've been eyeing.
And there are a lot of Mr. & Mrs. Doe's out there.
The simple equation is as follows:
for every dollar of unrealized cap gains Mr. & Mrs. Doe have given back, they will curb spending by an equal amount. I see a recession in its embryonic stage.... |
